Making Decisions

I’ll try to be clear, although I thought I was before. The actual odds of someone being injured in cartel violence doesn’t matter. It an individual feels that there risks involved with a visit to an area, they will act on those feelings, no mater what the actual odds are. I am more risk averse in my 70’s than I was in my 40’s when we first started visiting.

I think you have been clear on that point. I don’t think we have a difference on that point.

I think that where we have a difference is on whether the fear is irrational. As you said,

“Your definition of irrational and mine are considerably different. This area is heavily influenced by cartels and for those of us of a certain age, medical care that may not be adequate in an emergency.”

We also don’t have disagreement about the rational decision making based on medical conditions and the adequacy of either medical treatment or medical care.

I think our difference is whether decision making based on the perceived threat of cartels to tourists is rational or irrational. Given the absence of evidence of visitors or tourists being killed, injured, extorted, or otherwise directly impacted by cartel actions, I think that making a decision to avoid the area due to cartels makes no more sense than avoiding NYC because of “Mafia” activity.

I recall reading research years ago during my professional career regarding threat perception. I’m going by memory so I can’t provide a citation but the substance was as follows.

The demographic of males 25-24 reported the lowest perception that they would be victims of violence. Males over 65 reported the highest perception that they would be victims of violence.

The behaviours of each demographic reflected their perceptions.

In reality, males 15-24 were at highest risk and males over 65 were at lowest risk. Members of each group made irrational decisions based on misperceptions.

In “Superstition” Stevie Wonder sang,

‘When you believe in things that you don't understand
‘Then you suffer
‘Superstition ain't the way”

I suggest that when people make decisions based on fear responses that are not reality-based they are being irrational.

I’m not suggesting that anyone makes rational decisions in every instance.

How many of us calculated the objective cost:benefit of marrying or not; having children or not; going out for that nice dinner; or buying that nice home theatre that we don’t really need because our fading vision and hearing can’t perceive the difference in picture or sound?

I had a colleague who was required to attend a semi-annual work meeting. His employer paid the airfare for the one-hour flight. He would not fly. Instead he used a minimum of two vacation days in each direction to drive. One of the meetings was in snowy December. Of course, driving was not only more expensive, it was also higher risk.

None of these decisions are rational. They are irrational decisions characteristic of humans.